Friday, September 28, 2012

Hate Bowl Preview.

Peruna, LOLing at Gilbert.

Before we begin, a quick follow up on Wednesday's post regarding SMU Bro-lester, David Mahaffey:

  • It now comes to light that he attacked his victim TWICE, once in a parking garage and once again near his fraternity house.  So, uh, there goes the whole, "THIS WAS JUST A BIG MISUNDERSTANDING!!" defense.
  • Mahaffey is a member of SMU's IFC Council, meaning he plays a role in making decisions for the fraternity system as a whole.  In hindsight, it probably makes a lot of sense that Mahaffey lobbied so passionately for nude Greco Roman wrestling to be added to campus intramurals.
  • Mahaffey is a fourth generation SMU student.  That's potentially over a CENTURY's worth of little Mahaffey's running around and molesting their fellow brothers.  This thing could make Penn State look like a humdrum operation before they get to the bottom (pun intended) of it.
  • And, the big one, Mahaffey's great-grandfather FOUNDED SMU!!  If the apple doesn't fall far from the tree, I think we're all safe in assuming that SMU was founded on molestation, right? When you take into account that SMU has yet to actually file any charges against Mahaffey, that accusation becomes even clearer. Last time I checked, neither Add nor Ran's desdendants were firing off deviants and funnelling them through TCU, although it's entire possible they just left said black sheep in Waco when they got the hell out.  That would explain a lot about the current state of affairs there...  
I know SMU kids love to, "Go to the bar and ball out."  I just didn't think they LITERALLY liked to BALL OUT.  

A moment of silence for four generations worth of victims.

...

Now, a few quick notes on Saturday's game:
  • Frogs lead the series 44-40-7 all time.  TCU is 10-2 since the clock hit 00s, yet it is still considered a rivalry.  
  • TCU still has the nation's current longest win streak at 11 games.  The game before the streak started?  SMU last year.  GP probably hasn't brought that up.
  • TCU is 18-2 in the last 20 road games, with the only losses coming against Baylor and... Utah?  I can't keep track of 2 losses in that many seasons.  It's a burden we all must bear.
  • GP is 8-2 against SMU since taking over in 2001.  He is 12-4 all-time when you include previous assistant jobs.
  • This will be TCU's 34th game against a former SWC foe, and the last time this stat can be mentioned since we've joined back up with the ones that count.  The Frogs are 21-12 in these games, a 57% winning percentage.  Gonna go out on a limb and say we improve on that mark in regular Big 12 play as the years go by.  CALL ME CRAZY.
  • Yes, SMU and TCU still play for an item that is mostly featured on wedding registries.  It means a LOT more to them than it does to us, probably because you can cram way more cocaine in a frying pan than on a glass mirror that fits in your purse.
Oh boy, the annual Hate Bowl is upon us!  REVEL IN IT!  Revel in it because it's only the second time most of us have had the revenge factor in play since we became TCU students.  Revel in it because we get to re-right the ship in front of their home crowd as a Big 12 team.  And especially revel in it because SMU is terrible.  Like, really terrible.  Like, the worst defense in Division 1 terrible.  Like, Garrett Gilbert is their best option under center terrible.  Like, Saturday's game might be the most Amon Carter East arrangement it has ever been terrible.  

Oh yeah, and ONE OF SMU'S FOUNDERS MALE DESCENDANTS MOLESTED ANOTHER DUDE ON CAMPUS!! DURING HATE WEEK!!  Probably not the headline SMU wanted during Super Bowl week.

So you could say I'm feeling pretty confident about tomorrow night.

For you stat geeks out there, here are the facts.  I'm feeling very bullet point-y today. (Bullet points - the lazy man's preview technique).

  • Casey Pachall is currently the nation's most efficient passer, having completed 76.1 of his attempts for 841 yards, 8 TDs and only 1 pick.  SMU, god bless em, is dead last in country defending the pass, allowing 388 yards per game through the air alone.  SMU also ranks 107th in the country in sacks.
  • On the whole, SMU gives up 561 yards per game.  561.  FIVE HUNDRED AND SIXTY ONE.  That is dead last in the country.  Check this stat:  SMU forced TEN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! turnovers against SFA in week 2, winning the game 52-0.  YET THEY STILL GAVE UP 466 TOTAL YARDS INCLUDING 391 PASSING.  Ralph Wiggum says that is unpossible.  
  • On average, SMU gives up 180 yards more per game than they produce.  They have played Baylor, SFA and aggy.  None of those teams play defense.  TCU averages 485 yards per game.  Could be a record breaking day, despite ourselves.
  • SMU gives up 22 points in the first half of games.  That's a lot of points... until you consider that after a fiery JJ halftime speech, they give up 31.5!  So, uh, if we start slow, don't worry too much.  Like the above, TCU could shoot themselves in the foot for the third week in a row and still scorew points.
  • SMU gives up 35 points per game, 105th in the country.  Now I'm just rubbing it in.
  • And they aren't much better on offense.  Despite having Zach Line, SMU is 109th in rushing yards per game at 107.  Zach Line is the best player on their team.  They have also allowed at least 7 sacks-can't find a number that includes that Baylor game. It's POSSIBLE that SMU's offensive line is not very good.
  • SMU only scores 26 points per game.  That's less than 4 TDs.  They give up 5 TDs per game on average.  You do the math.
  • Garrett Gilbert is SMU's QB.  Garrett Gilbert is not very good at football.  Even Darius Johnson can't make him look good, and Darius Johnson made the experts suggest that JJ McDermott had next level potential for a brief period of time.  Kenny Cain, do you want to score a defensive touchdown?  WATCH THE UNDERNEATH ROUTES.
  • SMU has only one player with double digit receptions.  SMU's offense is called the "run n gun," averaging 53 attempts per game.  Again, Garrett Gilbert is not very good at football.
  • SMU only converts on third down 35% of the time.
  • SMU has only made 50% of their field goals.
  • SMU players are made to squat when they go #1.
So, in case you missed the point I am trying to make, on paper SMU might win 1 game this year, and that 1 is already in the books.  I realize that SMU "always comes to play" against TCU.  I realize that SMU has had 2 weeks to prepare for this game.  I also realize that we are playing this game on their home turf.  HOWEVA, check the scores - TCU plays SMU away almost EXACTLY as well as they do at home.  Since GP took over, TCU and SMU have played each other 10 times, an even 5/5 split.  Including the loss margins, TCU beats SMU in Dallas on average by 16.4 points;  At Amon G, TCU beats them by 17.4.  Excluding the losses, in 8 wins TCU's margin of victory at home is 23.5 points;  on the road, it only drops to 23.25.  SO, home field advantage doesn't really seem to matter too much in this one.  

I'm not going to sugarcoat it - if TCU loses tomorrow night, we will not break .500 for the season.  SMU is genuinely that bad and a loss to them will taint our season that dramatically.  This will be the weakest atmosphere for TCU/SMU in most of our lifetimes as TCU fans.  There is literally no reason why TCU doesn't wipe the floor with the Ponies.  For that not to happen, Garrett Gilbert would have to become Johnny Unitas - he admitted this past week that he has yet to master Junebug's offense, so this would seem unlikely - SMU's offensive line would have to become 5 Larry Allen's, SMU's pass defense would have to become otherworldly and, yada yada yada, you get it.  I haven't felt this assured in a TCU/SMU game in quite some time.  The Frogs may have sputtered a bit the past two weeks, but Kansas and UVA are NFL teams compared to SMU's product so far.  June spit the bit, so to speak, when he tried to bail on his team.  Now, it appears, they are bailing on him.

The Pick:  TCU 45, SMU 10.  Yes, that's double the point spread.

**UPDATE:  Revising the pick to 41 - 3.  I'm that confident.**

Prediction Post - Pound the Ponies Edition

Kickoff is just a day away and it's time to prognosticate on just how much of a butt-kicking TCU is going to put on our neighbors to the east tomorrow night. You know we are going to "ball out" Dallas style and TAKE BACK THAT SKILLET. SMU got their once a decade win last year in The Carter, but it's time to restore the natural order of things and get back to our dominating ways.

This is a statement game for the Frogs, and I think it's a game they must not only win, but win handily. After seeing what other teams have done to the SMU "defense", unless less than a 40+ point output will be a bit of a disappointment. I expect another big game from Pachall, with over 300 yards (unless the game is out of hand and Boykin gets some second half snaps), a couple of TD's through the air, and one on the ground. He's going to have to pick up for a running game that has been subpar, and for an o-line that has been inconsistent. Boykin will run some Wild Frog, and lead TCU in rushing as he breaks off a couple big gains and has at least one score. Does everybody remember Josh Boyce? He's been lost in the (well-deserved) BC hype, but JB has a break out game tomorrow with two TD's and well over 100 yards. I also think we finally see some Griffin Gilbert action - with a couple nice grabs on third down to move the chains.

On the defensive side, after giving up a TD against UVA - that never should have happened, JV had a pick in the end zone that he dropped - the Frogs allow a couple running touchdowns to Zach Line, who has been a TCU killer. But they shut down the passing game and dominate the second half. TCU continues to force turnovers at an impressive rate - I see a Stansley Maponga fumble return for a score in the future. Garrett Gilbert gets sacked a couple of times and hit a few more, and throws a pick or several.

I'm going with a final score of 42-17, in favor of the Frogs. Let's hear your predictions in the comments: score, Craig James mentions of the telecast, how many times we will see the Gilberts in the stands and whether they will be in red, purple, or one of those half and half jerseys, and if TCU fans will outnumber Pony supporters.

Lastly, #RememberTheFive and #CJK5H.

Morning Dump: 09/28


Football:
TCU a huge road favorite against SMU - SBNation
Despite Patterson saying he's not angry, TCU-SMU has a little extra bite - Yahoo Sports
TCU @ SMU Preview - Yahoo Sports
Is TCU a BCS Sleeper? - espn.com
A favorable schedule given the roster - hornedfrogsports.com
Patterson won't be surprised if SMU reveals new uniforms against TCU - @followthefrogs

Soccer:
TCU Opens big 12 play against WVU - gofrogs.com

Rifle:
TCU Aims for third national title - Star-Telegram.com

From the Archives:
The story behind the Iron Skillet - TCU Magazine

Tweet of the night:
TCU beat writer commemorates his favorite blown call by real refs from 1980 -