Friday, August 10, 2012

Lets talk Season O/U

I'm not much of a gambler.  I can't even admit to playing one on tv.  I know I like talking odds and wondering if a bet has good value.  All that means to me is something worth my bet.  I don't have fancy spreadsheets, formulas or even a system.  In other words, I'm the sort of better vegas likes.

I went to my friendly sportsbook site that is illegal in the US, www.sportsbook.ag.  Not to worry, they are licensed by the Directorate of Offshore Gaming of Antigua and Barbuda.  You're money is safe.

One of my favorites to look at before the season starts is the over/under wins for the upcoming season.  Let's start with TCU and the Big 12.

They have TCU's O/U at 7.5 games.  Now the over is at -160, which means you have to bet $160 to win $100.  The under is +130.  Seems like there's more action on the over.


Team Over Under
Kansas State o7 (+105) u7 (-135)
Oklahoma o10.5 (+130) u10.5 (-160)
Oklahoma State o8.5 (-115) u8.5 (-115)
TCU o7.5 (-160) u7.5 (+130)
Texas o9 (-130) u9 (even)
West Virginia o8.5 (-105) u8.5 (-125)



Arkansas o8.5 (-125) u8.5 (-105)
BYU o8.5 (-125) u8.5 (-105)
Boise State o9.5 (-155) u9.5 (+125)
Texas A&M o7 (-115) u7 (-115)
Utah
Alabama
USC
o8 (-125)
o10.5(-105)
o10.5(-125)
u8 (-105)
u10.5(-135)
u10.5(-105)



They have the teams from the top 25, but frankly it's a pain in the ass to format.  I gave you the big 12 and teams I'm interested in.

The TCU O/U is pretty low considering I can see TCU winning their first 7, like the rest of the press, which has me worried.  I don't know about Boise with as much as their team has changed. I can see them easily getting to ten wins though.  I always think Texas is overrated.  You need a QB to win in college football.  I'm afraid I'd push on Aggie.  Arkansas is too wierd with their new coach.  I grew up hating Okie State, so I always think their projected wins are always too high.

If I could only do a parley with these teams, I'd go USC under and TCU over.  It just so happens I feel strongly about these teams.  Although I don't hate USC as much, now that the 2005 Orange Bowl never existed.  Which is why I don't gamble on college football.  I get too emotional.

Do any of these bets look tempting?

Morning Dump: 08/10

29 Days until Kickoff, or in the army we would say 28 days and a wakeup.

Football:
2012 TCU Preview: The Money, The Mouth, and the Hedge - SBNation (the most comprehensive preview you'll read about TCU this year)
Opening Camp: TCU Horned Frogs - ESPN.com
Ex-Miami Coach Randy Shannon getting up to speed with TCU - StarTelegram.com
Two Beat writers, two early looks at TCU & Texas - StarTelegram.com vs. some tool from ESPN HornNation
2012 Preview: WR Unit returns nearly intact - gofrogs.com

Baseball:
Q&A with Slammers Pitcher Stephen Maxwell - Herald News

Gambling:
TCU Horned Frog Season Odds - askthebookie.com

BCS National Championship Odds: +8500
Big 12 Conference Championship Odds: +450
Heisman Trophy Odds: Casey Pachall (Quarterback) +1500