Friday, November 30, 2012

OU Preview



First off, I'd like to apologize for my absence this week from the Spitblood.  Sometimes grown up stuff takes precedent.  Second of all, I'd like everyone to please take note of the greatest fan of all time in the photo above.  I tried for a while to come up with a clever caption for that picture, but sometimes actions speak louder than words.  This guy's actions consist of tube socks, mesh shorts, a sleeveless T-shirt, and what appears to be some sort of old school helmet, although judging by the rest of his attire he might be legally required to wear that.  Thank you sir for going out in public.  This has to be the kind of guy that makes other OU fans cringe.  Let's hope for the sake of humanity that this creature has never procreated.  This guy deserved an entire paragraph to himself.  Now I'll try to regain focus and actually draft up some sort of preview.

As hard as it may be to take Superfan up there seriously, the same can't be said about their football team.  I'd gladly argue anyone that wants to that the OU team we will play tomorrow will be the best team we play to date.  Yes, K State was ranked #2 and beat OU, but that was not the same K State team that took down the Sooners a couple months ago, and this is far from the same OU team.  Not to mention Klein was hurt, and I don't care what you think.  OU is firing on all cylinders right now...offensively.  Defensively, not so much.  However, is it their defense that has really struggled or is it that they went against the best offenses in the Big 12 and don't deal well with the up tempo play that most of our conference foes employ?  I guess we will have to wait and see bright and early on Saturday.

There's plenty of reason for everyone to get off their asses and head over to the stadium (and stay in there) Saturday morning, so please no more empty seats.  We don't have a ton of seniors, but this will be the last time many of us get to see the likes of Matthew Tucker, Kenny Cain, and yes, Skye Dawson, in person.  Consider what they and all the other Seniors have accomplished at TCU, it behooves you to show them the respect and support they've earned over the years.  So get to your seats early and cheer these guys on when they are announced one by one and take the field at The Carter for the final time.

Also, we haven't won a home Big 12 game yet this year, and I'll say a good part of the reason why is because the home-field advantage has been abysmal.  Do you really want our team to not win a single conference game at home in their inaugural season?  Think of how great this season could have been if we had made our brand new, state of the art stadium a semi-tough venue to play in.  Let's at least try to make it happen once this year.  I'm tired of wasting my breath pleading to the fans to show much needed and deserved support, so I'll get off my high horse now and try to break down a little football instead.

Offense

We've seen some great QB play this year in the Big 12 (Klein, Smith, Doege, Florence), and we've seen some miserable QB play as well (The University of Texas).  Landry Jones is playing better right now than any we have seen.  The addition of Fresno State transfer Jalen Saunders has provided quite a security blanket in the slot for Jones, and he's the main reason I think the OU offense is on fire right now.  Even in the loss to Notre Dame, Saunders hauled in 15 catches for 181 yards.  Not too shabby for a guy who was playing in his 2nd game ever in an OU uniform.  Since that Notre Dame loss, OU has put up 35 points or more in their last 4 games, including topping 50 in the last 2.  The fear in Norman all offseason was that they had no receivers other than Kenny Stills, but the emergence of transfers Saunders and Justin Brown from Penn State, as well as the emergence of Sterling Shephard have really eased the tension and made life easier for Landry Jones.  While Stills is the big name in the receiving corps, he likes to cross-dress and Jason Verrett has gone on record saying he will cover him all day, so I don't fear Stills much on Saturday.  The same can't be said about Saunders.

Similar to TCU, OU doesn't lean heavily on 1 or 2 backs, but they have an abundance of guys who will carry the ball.  Damien Williams leads the way with 790 yards, but carries will also go to Brennan Clay, Roy Finch and Trey Millard.  However, everyone knows that when it's a short yardage or red zone situation that OU will call on Blake Bell a/k/a The Belldozer.  Bell, the 6'6, 255 lb. backup QB, has scored 11 rushing TD's this year and is the only person in the nation who can claim a rushing TD against the vaunted Notre Dame defense.  Spoiler alert:  he's not going to throw it, and he's still hard as shit to stop.  At 6'6 254, he's basically bigger than anyone we play on defense that isn't a DT, so that's not gonna be fun.  Hit him low and pray I guess.

I won't spend too much time addressing the TCU offense, since after reading about 5 of these from me now and seeing every game we've played, you guys know what our offense has to offer.  If Boykin is healthy enough to throw and keep the OU defense off balance then we have a chance.  We may not have thrown much at all last week against Texas, but the first play was about a 40 yard play-action that kept Texas's secondary honest the whole game.  Hopefully the additional rest has given TB and the others some time to get healthy, because the game plan from UT won't beat OU.  Matthew Tucker appears to be back to full strength which is a huge plus in the run game, because now we have the thunder to Catalon's lightning that I was hoping for in last week's preview.  Last week, Josh Boyce and Brandon Carter combined for 2 offensive touches, and one of those was an incomplete pass.  That will not get it done this week.  Those are probably our 2 biggest playmakers, so let's figure out a way to get them the ball more.  I've said it once and I'll say it again- screen passes please, especially if TB is too banged up to throw downfield.

Edge:  Oklahoma by a wide margin.

Defense

Remember when OU's defense was destroying David Ash and UT to the tune of 36-2 in the first half of the Red River Rivalry and everyone thought the Sooner defense was amazing?  Well, what they didn't take into consideration was the horrendous offensive product that UT puts on the field.  In the last 3 games, OU has surrendered almost 1,700 yards of offense while allowing Baylor to score 34, WVU to score 49 (and completely gash them on the ground with Tavon Austin, a WR), and 48 to Oklahoma State (and their 3rd string QB).  I know the Big 12 has some phenomenal offenses and those are 3 of the best I just mentioned, but OU has shown the ability to stop nobody in about a month.  The good thing for OU is that we clearly don't possess a high powered offense like that and we are far from up-tempo like the previous 3 opponents are.  The bad news for OU is that their weakness over the course of the season (especially recently) has been their inability to stop the run, which is obviously our strength.  Baylor and WVU are air raid offenses that put up 252 and 458 yards rushing  on them respectively.  Not a great matchup defensively for the Sooners.

For TCU, you know what we get defensively.  When we are good TCU, we are getting constant pressure with our DL and not having to dial up many blitzes.  Jason Verrett and Kevin White lock down the outside receivers while our talented safeties and LB's cover the slots and backs.  We create turnovers based on pressure and ball hawking defensive backs.  When we are bad TCU, we can get any push, are forced to bring pressure from elsewhere which creates matchup problems with our LB's and teams are able to find WR's running free in space.  Tech would be the best example of this.  Lots of open targets for Doege.  Fortunately for TCU, we haven't seen that defense in quite a while.  Unfortunately as I mentioned earlier, Landry Jones is pretty damn good and he's on an incredible hot streak right now.  Defensively I see two keys for us:  1) Get pressure with the front 4.  the new found health of Maponga to bookend Fields has been a godsend, but so has the ability of Chucky Hunter to get push up the middle and get right in the face of QB's.  It's a bitch to throw when a 300 pounder is shoving your own lineman into your face.  2) Find someone to lock down Jalen Saunders in the slot.  I'd suggest Olabode, but I love him having the ability to roam the middle and make instinctual plays.  Sam Carter or Derrick Kindred are going to have to be that guy.  If we see a LB covering him at any time, consider us fucked on that play.

Edge:  TCU, by a pretty good margin.

Special Teams

OU has had both Jalen Saunders and Justin Brown take a punt return back for a touchdown.  Roy Finch has taken a kickoff return back for a TD as well.  Frankly, their 27.5 ypr on kickoffs and 16.5 ypr on punts is downright frightening, so they've got us there.  Also, we tend to have the shakiest hands ever on punts no matter who returns them.  I am loving the duo of Boyce and Carter on kickoff returns now, and we almost had Boyce house one for an early dagger against UT.  We are more than capable of making something happen in the return game, but OU has already done so a few times.  OU's kicker, Mike Hunnicutt, is 14-17 on the year with a long of 45, so he's consistent but not necessarily a bomber.  Jaden Oberkrom is 18-25 with a long of 50, but is a much better kicker at home than he is on the road.  Tres Way averages 42.6 per punt with 17 of his 41 punts going inside of the 20, however he has had 1 blocked.  Ethan Perry averages 44.5 per punt with 14 of his 48 going inside of the 20.  I'll quit boring everyone with special teams stats now.

Edge:  OU, barely.

Coaching

Big Game Bob isn't exactly Big Game Bob anymore, but he's still one of the best coaches in the country.  Gary Patterson is the greatest coach in the history of sports.  Ghosts of Vince Lombardi, Bear Bryant and John Wooden would probably all attend a coaching clinic put on by GMFP.

Edge:  TCU, barely. 

The Pick:  On paper, it looks to me like OU is an overwhelming favorite.  Vegas thinks they are a 6 point favorite.  I have a hard time seeing this Senior class going out without a single home conference win in the Big 12, and we all know what GP can do with a few extra days to prepare.  I think he's able to neutralize the potent Oklahoma offensive attack, and I think the extra rest gave our offensive players some much needed time to heal.  Not to mention the confidence gained by winning on the road in Austin.  We finish the regular season with a W.  TCU 27 - Oklahoma 23.


12 comments:

VikingFrog said...

Frogs by 1.

LOLfolding said...

I have to wear an Okie Light tie to work (I don't even wear button ups every day, nevertheless a tie) if we don't win this game.

JHale said...

Ouch LOL. Rough one. Excited for tomorrow and hope we can send the Seniors out right!

Oh Austin was recruited as a RB but they had that Devine kid so he moved to WR. Still crazy what he did when the only plays he had for a RB against OU was run right and run left.

Tanner said...

that's pretty insane to say the reason we're 0-3 in league play at home is our fans

THEFINCH said...

I don't mind blaming the fan base, they are collectively pathetic

Tanner said...

yeah but when you say "they", don't you mean "us." I know I haven't left a game early, yet by law of averages we're all pathetic, right?

THEFINCH said...

There is us and them, us good ones, them bad ones

SnK said...

I never said the reason we were 0-3 at home was bc of the fans. It definitely doesn't contribute. And I'm not saying it's everyone, just a good chunk.

Sir Wesley Willis said...

I think you can EASILY blame the fans just by looking at the home/away record. Unfortunately it's a collective thing - for everyone person standing up and cheering, we have 5 yelling at them to sit down. This culture is never going to change because it's been that way since we've all been around; adding club seats and suites just amplifies that. We as psychofans can only do so much when there's little to no support backing us up. It's our reality.

Oh, and you can blame the fact that we happened to be playing Tech and Kansas State when they were still good and Iowa State when we weren't. Does that help any?

Despite the shitty atmosphere we're destined to have tomorrow for an early kick, I can't quite put my homerific tendencies aside. If our defense goes against everything they've been doing this season and fails to show up, we're in trouble, but if we can force a couple of turnovers and/or bust a few big returns on special teams, we've got a chance. Our O Line play on Thanksgiving was a stunning turn of events and, although it could've been a product of UT not being that great, I choose to believe they may have FINALLY put it all together.

Biggest issue might be that OU has more to play for than we do, what with a BCS bid on the line, but Texas had an outside shot at the same thing last week and we see what happened. Too terrified to make a call. See you all out there.

LOLfolding said...

I just really don't want to turn the ball over a shitload again. That crap makes me lose my mind.

Tanner said...

i thought the fans were pretty loud during k-state and tech, especially when we kept turning over the ball, missing fg and general ineffectiveness offensively during the k-state game.

what irks me the most.....and that position is hard to fill.....is the huge blank opening in our stands.

Right in the GD middle of the home side, 50 yard line. The best seats. Where everyone is presumably in the suites or eating boiled goose and drinking siberian vodka on tiger rugs, and not in seats for THE ENTIRE GAME. Their seat should be literally snatched from them by GMFP himself so that he can beat them over the head with it. It is disgraceful.

JT said...

Yeah, I think the fans have been better this season than in most of our previous games (Utah and sometimes BYU excepted). The problem is that we as TCU fans are too quick to give up on our team, based on prior experience, but Boykin has shown a remarkable ability to keep the team fighting til the last second, a la Texas Tech.

So to me... the problem is that we have great fans for the first half, then (depending on the game) mediocre to bad fans the second half.

It's getting better... but we need all-game support.