Friday, October 19, 2012

TCU vs Texas Tech - Predictions

Homecoming weekend and the Dirt Aggies FINALLY have to make their way to Fort Worth. You can't back out of conference games, Tubbs.

This is a completely different Tech team than what TCU would have seen a year ago, one that is defensive minded and more than capable of playing in and winning big games against ranked opponents, as they demonstrated just last week, knocking off West Virginia in Lubbock in an absolute thrashing. Of course, the Frogs are also coming off a big win of their own down in Waco, so this is a match up of two red hot teams that have offenses that can score and defenses that can make stops and turn teams over.

The question is which team can carry the positive momentum through without the let down that generally comes after a big, emotional win? Tech's beat-down of WVU is definitely the bigger upset, but there weren't many that thought TCU would roll down to Waco and put the hurt on Baylor, let alone win the game (presented company excluded, of course). I like to think/hope that this wasn't a fluke win for Trevone Boykin and co, but the coming out party for a talented young QB who can shine when given the proper time in practice to prepare. The defense was clearly no fluke as TCU leads the country in interceptions and has shown that last year was the off year, and the Frogs are back to dominating ways that we have grown accustomed to under GMFP.

The keys on Saturday won't be much different than last week; ball security, pressure on QB Seth Doege, and shutting down the run. If Boykin shows the same accuracy and escapability in the pocket, it's going to be a long day for the Red Raiders. That said, the Tech defense is an actual thing, not like the Baylor "defense" that throws out 11 middle schoolers I think. Tech is holding teams to about 16 points a game, good for 16th in the country, while they average 40+ on O and are a top five passing team. Something has to give, as the Frogs are only giving up 14 a game, and though they don't have the ridiculous offensive stats, red zone turnovers have a lot to do with that.

I think we will see Tech force Boykin to be accurate and pick his spots and make plays with his legs. Tech will try and shut down the running game, which has shown flashes but not been exceptional,  and keep Boykin in the pocket so that he has to stand in and make accurate throws down the field. #2 is only going to get better throughout the year, but this is the stiffest test he's faced in his young career. There will be mistakes, but ultimately I think he does enough to get the job done, and it was obvious on Saturday that the guys are going to play hard for him. We continue to have revelations in our wide receiver core, and it seems like a different guy steps up weekly, in addition to Boyce and Carter who have been excellent. Boykin will throw for 200 yards and run for another 40, accounting for two scores.

The running game seems to be improving steadily, and BJ Catalon is an exciting young guy to watch. Dean was serviceable last week, and with Tucker still a question mark, he's going to have to take that next step up. I think we see BJ break through with his first collegiate TD this week.

The defense has looked strong, fast, and nasty, and that's not going to change with an in-state rival coming to town. Devonte Fields, who SI named a mid-season All American, has been ridiculous, and is quite possibly the best freshman defender in the country. He makes plays every game, and seems to spend most of his time in the backfield. Seth Doege is not going to like meeting this guy tomorrow afternoon. Jason Verrett has been solid all season long, and after struggling against Iowa State, Kevin White was better on Saturday, but there is going to be a ton of pressure on the secondary to limit the big plays and keep Doege off the field. If they can continue to pick off passes and pressure the QB, it obviously makes life much easier for Bumpas and GP.

I think we all want to see Skye break a long return and justify the fact that he is still returning punts. This is the game where it finally happens! (hopefully) Oberkrom is my favorite kicker ever and Perry has boomed some big punts and is a weapon as far as field position is concerned. Special Teams is becoming a strength.

This is a game that could really go either way, but I have my purple tinted glasses on and think TCU comes out on top, 27-24, with Oberkrom kicking the winning FG late in the game after a long Boykin run. Share your predictions in the comments - Final Score, Tortillas Thrown, Parking Lot Brawls, and if the chance of a closely fought game is enough to keep the stands full for four quarters.


Middle Man said...

Game is going to be heated. At least 10 arrests in the parking lots. 5 or 6 different fights. Tortillas are delicious and dont understand why they are thrown but I dont understand why anyone would go to Tech either so go figure.

Game isnt as close as people predict.
TCU wins 40-30. Boykin doenst play lights out like last week but does a good job. We take advantage of turnovers because we get some pressure and our DBs make the most of it.

Defense steps up big and they score garbage points in the end.

FrogHorn07 said...

Tech forces Boykin to operate from the pocket and read the coverage to find the open WR (he showed promise at BU, but missed some reads and open WR).

Mean while the defense runs "don't get beat deep defense" and gets nickled and dimed until they come up and are burnt deep. We do get enough pressure on Dodge to force a couple rushed passes and a pick.

We win special teams, with a good kick return.

Final Tech 27 - TCU 17

Lyle Lanley said...

If the Frogs can avoid the crippling mistakes (red zone turnovers, critical penalties) that plagued them in the early part of the season, this will be a very close & competitive game.

If not...Tech will capitalize on them and the result will not be pretty for those of us wearing purple. Then again, the Red Raiders have not been immune to the turnover bug, either.

Neither of these teams should expect to be able to do the same things offensively that they did last week. The Tech and TCU defenses are light years ahead of what West Virginia and Baylor have on that side of the ball. Advantage to Tech and Doege, as he's played against some good defenses over the years, but also advantage TCU in that Tech may not know exactly what they are defending against in Boykin.

I mean no disrespect to Tuberville by saying this, because I think he's a very good coach, but the main cause for optimism for the Frogs going into this one is that we'll have GP roaming our sideline. There's not a better X's and O's coach out there right now, and hopefully he's whipped up the kind of airtight game plans that we've seen him do so many times over the years.

This game scares the hell out of me, but I'm also very excited for it. These are two good football teams, both hungry to prove themselves further. It doesn't hurt that these two fanbases have an insatiable appetite for bragging rights over the other.

My head tells me that the Red Raiders will grab an early lead and be able to hold off the Frogs with their amazingly improved D.

My heart tells me that the Frogs really circled the wagons after the ISU loss and that Boykin and our ridiculous stable of WRs will be able to make enough plays to get us over the hump.

I'll side with my optimistic half and predict TCU 26, Tech 23.

JT said...


I think it has the potential to be close, but I also know that TCU teams can sometimes get disheartened when they're down a bit. Doege could blow holes in our secondary (damn you Kevin White) and I think their run game will be a bigger threat than Baylor's, especially without Maponga.

Offensively, TCU has the potential to break open plays but also has a tendency to shoot itself in the foot. Our run game is not really good enough without Tucker to keep their defense too far off balance, though having Boykin in the mix has helped us out IMMENSELY in that regard.

I think this will be a very similar game to last week. Advantage TTU with a few deep plays for scores and some grinding.

Final: TTU 35, TCU 24

VikingFrog said...

The game ends in a 0-0 tie. Everyone in the stadium gives each other hugs at the end of the game and pats each other on the back. We embrace our "Christian" and say a prayer for the great weather, great game, and the safety and happiness of not only the players, but also the many fans who root for these two teams.

HFrog77 said...

Defense wins championships. Ours is stepping up, back from the uncertainty of last year.

What I remember from last year is how much TCU improved as the season progressed.

Patterson & Co seem to be achieving the same result this year. Our young guys are learning.

We're going to win this game 38-24. Great D, absolutely sick group of receivers, and a QB that is already showing he is a leader.

danders said...

Lessons from the last two games - playing a tough defensive team like ISU and shutting down a high-scoring offense in Waco - will pay big dividends for the young team. Confidence will be high; focus will be there and the Frogs will close out the game with a 34 - 20 win to continue the B1G 12 Innaugural journey.

ctbeecherl said...

23 - 20 TCU

Slay Purple said...

Definitely painted up for this game in 2006 (check the STG & I'm on the front page) & think it will be a completely different game. In the fact that Tech will score a TD. But, I like the idea of a low scoring game & thats what I'm going with. If TCU loses the turnover battle we lose, plain & simple.

TCU 17 Tech 16

My flight leaves at 5 pm on Saturday so I'll miss the best part of the game...

OHaGEN said...

Fun game to watch this past weekend. Looking forward to a great revamped rivalry between these two times. Was very impressed with Boykin and will not be looking forward to playing him the next few years.

Always funny seeing people talk smack about Tech...and then watching us win. No doubt will see the same crap next year. Obviously the middle letter in your university acronym is just for giggles.

Welcome to the Big 12. Wreck 'Em