Friday, August 10, 2012

Lets talk Season O/U

I'm not much of a gambler.  I can't even admit to playing one on tv.  I know I like talking odds and wondering if a bet has good value.  All that means to me is something worth my bet.  I don't have fancy spreadsheets, formulas or even a system.  In other words, I'm the sort of better vegas likes.

I went to my friendly sportsbook site that is illegal in the US,  Not to worry, they are licensed by the Directorate of Offshore Gaming of Antigua and Barbuda.  You're money is safe.

One of my favorites to look at before the season starts is the over/under wins for the upcoming season.  Let's start with TCU and the Big 12.

They have TCU's O/U at 7.5 games.  Now the over is at -160, which means you have to bet $160 to win $100.  The under is +130.  Seems like there's more action on the over.

Team Over Under
Kansas State o7 (+105) u7 (-135)
Oklahoma o10.5 (+130) u10.5 (-160)
Oklahoma State o8.5 (-115) u8.5 (-115)
TCU o7.5 (-160) u7.5 (+130)
Texas o9 (-130) u9 (even)
West Virginia o8.5 (-105) u8.5 (-125)

Arkansas o8.5 (-125) u8.5 (-105)
BYU o8.5 (-125) u8.5 (-105)
Boise State o9.5 (-155) u9.5 (+125)
Texas A&M o7 (-115) u7 (-115)
o8 (-125)
u8 (-105)

They have the teams from the top 25, but frankly it's a pain in the ass to format.  I gave you the big 12 and teams I'm interested in.

The TCU O/U is pretty low considering I can see TCU winning their first 7, like the rest of the press, which has me worried.  I don't know about Boise with as much as their team has changed. I can see them easily getting to ten wins though.  I always think Texas is overrated.  You need a QB to win in college football.  I'm afraid I'd push on Aggie.  Arkansas is too wierd with their new coach.  I grew up hating Okie State, so I always think their projected wins are always too high.

If I could only do a parley with these teams, I'd go USC under and TCU over.  It just so happens I feel strongly about these teams.  Although I don't hate USC as much, now that the 2005 Orange Bowl never existed.  Which is why I don't gamble on college football.  I get too emotional.

Do any of these bets look tempting?


SnK said...

The SEC is starting to make me believe you don't in fact need a QB to win in college football. Having said that, I also think Texas is overrated.

I'll wait until that O/U goes up to 8 with better odds to take TCU. I see 9-10 wins.

Tanner said...

Do any of these bets look tempting?


Also you would take USC under? knowing their division you have to assume they'll line up 14 times this season.

Matt said...

I'm happy to take the other side of anyone who wants the over at 9.

Winning those first 7 is hardly guaranteed and obviously the last 5 are something much worse than guaranteed.

HFrog77 said...

I'm tempted by the under on the Schlonghorns. And then I remember their out of conference schedule is Wyoming, New Mexico and Ole Miss. Geesh, what pussies!

And they have WVU and TCU at home.

I'm out.