Wednesday, February 22, 2012

I'm Just Gonna Come Out and Say It...

Just picture them like this, Frogs...

The Frogs are totally losing to the Air Forces tonight.

How do I know this? Because TCU plays to their level of competition more blatantly than just about any other team in college basketball. More specifically, TCU plays DOWN to their competition on the road more blatantly than just about any other team in college basketball. It's baffling. Seriously, check the schedule. The Frogs are a ghastly 2-7 in true road games, including outright rapings courtesy of an historically bad USC team (seriously, on pace to be the worst team in school history) by 24 points, MWC Leader New Mexico (who TCU will inexplicably beat this weekend. You watch) by 17 and UNLV (a team the Frogs overcame an 18 point deficit to beat just last weekend) by 23. That stretch also includes a giveaway against a Colorado State (a team the Frogs beat at home a month later), a loss to SMU (a team that put together three straight sub-20 point halves this past week, which I believe was an NCAA first) and the abortion that was the Boise State game this past weekend. Just in case you missed it, the Frogs led by double digits immediately, then gave the game away by playing shoddy defense and missing key free throws down the stretch to a team made up almost entirely of freshmen.

Sure, to the naked eye, TCU should beat Air Force; after all, they already have. The Falcons are 13-11, but are 3-7 in Conference play and sit in the cellar with Boise... you know, the team TCU just lost to on the road. They're highly averse to scoring and rebounding and, with that record, really have nothing going for them except for pride. HOWEVER, look at the schedule. Despite a 1-7 start to Conference play, the Falcons are currently riding a two game win streak, including a stunning upset of San Diego State this past weekend. AF also took UNLV to overtime and only lost by two, which holds merit because UNLV hadn't started their current slide -they followed up the TCU loss by getting drilled by UNM - quite yet. They also beat Boise on the road, something we proved beyond our capabilities.

Furthermore, since the Frogs 59-55 win in Fort Worth back in January, the Falcons have fired their coach and seen an emerging floor leader in Guard Michael Lyons who is averaging 25 points during the current streak. Lyons, who averages 16 points on the season, only had 6 against the Frogs the first go around... if he even gets half his average, combined with the road factor, TCU will lose by double digits.

I suppose having a team labeled as "good at home, unable to win on the road" is better than the team's usual "bad at home, bad on the road" philosophy, but these road losses have completely offset the positive momentum we've been riding from the wins over UVA and UNLV. Another one tonight might be the death knell for post season hopes of any kind. The Frogs have a big chance to wash off that miserable loss in Idaho over the weekend and shake the "road win: DOES NOT COMPUTE" label they've earned throughout the season. I'm not getting my hopes up.

Every pessimistic TCU fan ever.