Friday, February 3, 2012

A Glimmer of Postseason Hope

When we last took a look at TCU's postseason chances a few weeks ago, they had an RPI of #134 and it looked as if they were squarely on the bubble...of making one of the minor, sub-NIT postseason tournaments. By keeping their heads above water with a 3-3 start to the conference season, though, the Frogs have significantly improved their outlook.

In Joe Lunardi's latest bracketology, the last four teams projected to make the NCAA field are Notre Dame, Cincinnati, Washington and the previously mentioned Colorado State. Those four schools have an average RPI of 60.7, which we'll round up to 61 to serve as our estimated cut-off for a ticket to the Big Dance. That would make #93 the estimated cut-off to be part of the 32-team NIT field and #133 the cut-off to make it into either the 24-team CIT or the 16-team CBI.

So far in the MWC schedule, the Frogs have protected their home court with wins against Wyoming, Air Force and Boise State and took NCAA Tournament hopeful Colorado State to overtime on the road. That has pushed their overall record to 13-8 and helped them improve their RPI 37 spots to #97. So as you can see, TCU is looking pretty good to make it into a minor tournament right now, and would be considered an NIT bubble team. Sad as it may be to say it, but that is pretty exciting to a long-time TCU hoops fan.

The rest of the way won't be easy for Jim Christian's squad, though. Five of their final nine regular-season games are on the road, including the four most winnable of them (Boise, Air Force, Wyoming & next Wednesday at SMU) as well as tomorrow night's chance to upset #17 San Diego State. The Aztecs dodged a bullet last time out when Boise missed a potential game-winning three at the buzzer, which could be good news or bad news. Are the Frogs catching SDSU at a lull in their season, or are they going to be going up against a suddenly re-focused and angry Aztec squad?


FrogHorn07 said...

This is a glimmer, as much as I love TCU Basketball the Frogs are not the same team away from the DMC (think @USC and @New Mexico). That said, with wins @ SMU, @ Air Force, @ Boise, vs Colorado State and vs New Mexico, plus one in the Conference tourny, we should grab a NIT bid. That would be huge for JC, and a big step for TCU Basketball. I think this is an achivable goal.

Slay Purple said...

I am just glad that so far we have tripled our conference wins from last year...