Wednesday, November 30, 2011
SWW has done a great job outlining what needs to happen for TCU to go BCS Ballin’. Assuming Houston (-12.5) loses, here is a Brad Edwards (not funny) recap of what he’s basically already said.
TCU at #18 is being hurt by computers (CPU 18 vs both human polls at 17). They need to move forward 2 spots. Given some of the huge discrepancies between all 3 polls right now and the fact in week 15 human voters (2/3’s BCS formula) will (get paid off and) make crazy changes ignoring where they’ve previously slotted teams:
-TCU needs #17 Baylor to lose. #22 UT is 1 spot ahead of TCU in the CPU but they're 29th in the Coaches and 25th in the Harris so they shouldn’t jump TCU (unless they buy voters)
-TCU would jump #15 Wisc if they lose, but if they win TCU could jump #13 Mich St. with a little human help (Harris 11 / Coaches 9 / CPU 16)
-Decent chance to jump #11 K-State if they lose given where humans already have them ( Harris 15 / Coaches 15 / CPU 6)
-Ok chance to jump #14 UGA if they lose but the CPU (14) might not ding them much so TCU needs a bad UGA loss so humans (12/14) ignore the “S-E-C” factor
-Jumping #10 OU is a long shot, #9 Oregon (7 Humans / CPU 10) is less long but tough given their brand rep with voters, neither of these will likely happen
-Houston isn’t totally out of the realm of possibilities (depending on margin of loss/voter reaction), but long nonetheless
-Clemson (20 BCS / 20 Harris / 21 Coaches /21 CPU) would prob jump TCU with a win
-#23 West VA (with a win over S. FL) only jumps TCU if there’s a voter conspiracy, same for #19 Neb (off), both have CPU’s below TCU (West Va 29, Neb 20)
-#22 UT, there’s no way this happens unless they cheat…which they’re actually really really good at
To summarize- TCU needs to move up 2 spots. Only Clemson (+7) can (without foul play) jump them. If UT (+2.5) wins, TCU would jump Baylor. TCU has anywhere from a lock with Wisc (-9) to a decent shot with Mich St. at jumping the loser of the Big 10 championship. They also have a good-decent chance of jumping UGA (+13.5) and K-State (-10.5).
Nobody on a national level is talking about what happens if Houston loses. If they do fall, the implications of “a two loss TCU team with losses to SMU and a Baylor who just won/lost to UT by X” will become a storyline that’ll run throughout the day (HOU game is early Sat – UT/Baylor is afternoon). How much, and more importantly HOW, ESPN decides to pimp that story for the 24 hours before ballots are due will have a massive influence on voters. Once the story breaks, all of them will then be closely examining where they slot us in relation to the top 16 given the implications. I think best case would be this gets little press and is realized as late as possible in the news cycle.
Posted by WWHD (What Would Hughes Do) at Wednesday, November 30, 2011