While the weekend didn't bring the results we wanted - notably Houston looking particularly dominant over what was thought to be a potent Tulsa team - the Frogs BCS hopes are just as alive as they were last week, and perhaps more so. The latest rankings had the Frogs move up to 18th from 20th, thanks the losses by Clemson and Penn State, and more movement is potentially on the horizon as we enter the final week of the season. We'll have a more substantial post later in the week detailing the chances of the cards falling in our favor, but here's what we need to happen, in order of importance.
- #8 Houston losing to #24 Southern Miss in the CUSA Championship Game. Nothing happens without that card falling.
- #23 Texas Defeating #17 Baylor in Waco. At one point this looked like a long shot, but with Texas riding momentum from their last second win in College Station, plus Griffin playing with a concussion, not to mention UT wanting revenge for last year's defeat, we can't rule it out. With 4 losses on the year, Texas more than likely would not have the points to jump TCU with this win.
- A one sided victory for either team in the Big Ten Championship between #13 Michigan State and #15 Wisconsin. As I've said before, I'm not very good at BCS math so one of you will have to fill us in, but at 0.12 points behind #15 Wisconsin, and 0.20, it's probably going to take a blowout for us to make up the difference.
- A #14 Georgia blowout in the SEC Championship. Georgia has certainly helped their case in the polls with their 10 game win streak, so it's not a given that a third loss on the season to the undisputed #1 ranked team would drop them very far in the polls, if at all. When you see that Baylor sit ahead of us at present with 3 losses, it becomes an even foggier proposition. But, the game will be played in Atlanta and will be at least marginally pro-UGA based on casual fans, although you can bet it won't be as lopsided as in years past with the LSU faithful as rabid and ready to travel as they have been in years. If LSU is to roll the Bulldogs, would the voters treat the Dawgs more harshly given a perceived home field advantage? This is result we don't NEED to have happen, but one that we would certainly take in stride.
- #3 Oklahoma State blowing out #10 Oklahoma. Much like the above game, I'm not sure a loss would even drop OU far enough down to move us up, but it's the preferable outcome for a TCU fan holding out hope. We need the Boone Pickenses to unleash the kraken.
- #5 Virginia Tech defeats #20 Clemson in the ACC Championship. Just to be safe because Clemson is lurking a little too close for comfort, although they'd have to make up a pretty decent gap in points.
- UCLA blowing out #8 Oregon in the Pac 12 Championship. Hahahaha, ok, so there isn't a chance in hell of this working out, but a boy can dream.
Just a few things to think about this week. We definitely need the first point to happen, and probably two of the other four, in order to have a shot at the Sugar Bowl, presumably against Michigan. It's a long shot, but crazier things have happened.