Monday, November 28, 2011

BCS Hopes Still Alive and Well.


While the weekend didn't bring the results we wanted - notably Houston looking particularly dominant over what was thought to be a potent Tulsa team - the Frogs BCS hopes are just as alive as they were last week, and perhaps more so. The latest rankings had the Frogs move up to 18th from 20th, thanks the losses by Clemson and Penn State, and more movement is potentially on the horizon as we enter the final week of the season. We'll have a more substantial post later in the week detailing the chances of the cards falling in our favor, but here's what we need to happen, in order of importance.
  • #8 Houston losing to #24 Southern Miss in the CUSA Championship Game. Nothing happens without that card falling.
  • #23 Texas Defeating #17 Baylor in Waco. At one point this looked like a long shot, but with Texas riding momentum from their last second win in College Station, plus Griffin playing with a concussion, not to mention UT wanting revenge for last year's defeat, we can't rule it out. With 4 losses on the year, Texas more than likely would not have the points to jump TCU with this win.
  • A one sided victory for either team in the Big Ten Championship between #13 Michigan State and #15 Wisconsin. As I've said before, I'm not very good at BCS math so one of you will have to fill us in, but at 0.12 points behind #15 Wisconsin, and 0.20, it's probably going to take a blowout for us to make up the difference.
  • A #14 Georgia blowout in the SEC Championship. Georgia has certainly helped their case in the polls with their 10 game win streak, so it's not a given that a third loss on the season to the undisputed #1 ranked team would drop them very far in the polls, if at all. When you see that Baylor sit ahead of us at present with 3 losses, it becomes an even foggier proposition. But, the game will be played in Atlanta and will be at least marginally pro-UGA based on casual fans, although you can bet it won't be as lopsided as in years past with the LSU faithful as rabid and ready to travel as they have been in years. If LSU is to roll the Bulldogs, would the voters treat the Dawgs more harshly given a perceived home field advantage? This is result we don't NEED to have happen, but one that we would certainly take in stride.
  • #3 Oklahoma State blowing out #10 Oklahoma. Much like the above game, I'm not sure a loss would even drop OU far enough down to move us up, but it's the preferable outcome for a TCU fan holding out hope. We need the Boone Pickenses to unleash the kraken.
  • #5 Virginia Tech defeats #20 Clemson in the ACC Championship. Just to be safe because Clemson is lurking a little too close for comfort, although they'd have to make up a pretty decent gap in points.
  • UCLA blowing out #8 Oregon in the Pac 12 Championship. Hahahaha, ok, so there isn't a chance in hell of this working out, but a boy can dream.
Just a few things to think about this week. We definitely need the first point to happen, and probably two of the other four, in order to have a shot at the Sugar Bowl, presumably against Michigan. It's a long shot, but crazier things have happened.

21 comments:

Curt McDurt said...

Can someone explain this to me...why does ESPN and every newspaper etc., have a Big East team in a BCS bowl? I thought if they were NOT in the top 16 they are NOT elgiable to go...so why does everyone have them in one?

Brian B said...

The Big East goes no matter what their ranking, that's the point in being an "automatic qualifing" conference. The top 16 thing only applies to Non-AQ conference winners.

Curt McDurt said...

so we can take their spot if we are in the top 16? That is for sure? I just would have thought that BCS Countdown Show would at least discuss that and not act like its a forgone conclusion that it can't happen...thats what's got me confused.

Travis said...

We wouldn't be taking their spot. The deck has always been stacked against the non-AQ's. A few of the requirements for a non-AQ to make a BCS bowl are: First, you must win your conference, second, be in the BCS top 12 to make it automatically, third, at least be in the BCS top 16 and rank higher than any of the 6 AQ conference champs. Which in this case, as usual, the Big Least will qualify. Thank you again footbal gods for sparring us from that conference!

Curt McDurt said...

So if we are NOT taking their spot, then there are too many teams going to the BCS bowls (10 Spots)...
2 SEC (Bama, LSU
2 Pac 12 (Oregon, Stanford)
2 Big 12 (OSU, OU or K St.)
1 Big 10 (Mich St./Wis Winner)
1 ACC (VT)
1 At Large (Houston)
1 Big East (who cares)
1 Extra Non-AQ At Large (TCU)
So that is 11 teams for 10 spots.....

Frogger98 said...

Curt,

There is really only one non-BCS conference at large. That is why Houston would have to lose for TCU to even have a shot of going.

Lyle Lanley said...

But if the Frogs got in, Curt, it would be because Houston lost. So they'd be out.

Sir Wesley Willis said...

Someone has missed the point of the struggles of the TCU fan these past few years...

Sir Wesley Willis said...

Your BCS Bowls, if it started today, would likely be

NC - bama/LSU
Orange - VT/WVU
Fiesta - Stanford/Okie, Jr. or OU
Rose - Oregon/Wisconsin or MSU
Sugar - Houston/Michigan.

Only things that would upset that balance would be if Georgia won this weekend, which would move Michigan out of the Sugar spot and the Dawgs in, and if Houston lost to USM, which would presumably slot in TCU, although that isn't guaranteed.

Kansas State is another team that could sneak in, but they'd probably require an OU loss.

Sir Wesley Willis said...

and Stanford only goes if they finish in the top 4 of the standings as they would be an auto pick. If not, it's not unforseeable that another AQ at large with a bigger fan base could take their slot - like Michigan - even if they finish at 5. Andrew Luck is probably TV gold though.

Curt McDurt said...

so WVU/Big Least Winnger goes no matter what, even if we are in the top 16?

Sir Wesley Willis said...

yes - that's the brunt of your "why the BCS isn't fair to non big six conference members" argument.

Sir Wesley Willis said...

top 16 only applies if you are ranked higher than a Big Six Conference champion and there isn't another non AQ conference champion ahead of you.

EdK said...

I didn't think it was possible TCU still had a shot. if Houston loses -- now that's a longshot -- the Big 10 title game loser and either Georgia or Baylor lose (both very possible) then, will they take TCU if it finishes in the top 16?

I'm not sure what the unexpected would be, other than So. Miss jumping us.

Also, I read that GP is planning on the Vegas Bowl if the BCS doesn't come knocking. I am surprised he would say that.

VikingFrog said...

Would have been even more favorable if Michigan had gone ahead and lost on Saturday.

Lyle Lanley said...

@ Ed-

If Houston loses and the Frogs finish in the Top 16, it's not a matter of "IF" a BCS bowl would take the Frogs...because one of them would HAVE to.

EdK said...

I know, Lyle. Just -- REALLY -- it seems so unbelieveeeeeeable! (As the late, great Jim Wacker would say.)

But, Houston will dispatch So. Miss. They stink.

Sir Wesley Willis said...

Yeah, it's supremely shocking that we still have a chance, but, as they say, if you're going to lose, lose early. It also doesn't hurt that Baylor has turned out to be a decent team, although it's ironic that we need them to lose in order to have a shot.

Seriously, though, when the BCS put the "Top 16 if you're above an AQ team" rule in place, they never expected it to actually become a possibility. Kansas State, Arkansas and South Carolina REALLY hate the Big East right now.

EdK said...

SWW, Arkansas for sure. The other two are not that good. But the Big East has sucked for years. That's why ... oh, forget it.

VikingFrog said...

Arkansas especially.

Oh, sorry I lost to the two best teams in the country. Fuck you Big East.

It's actually quite funny to me. Until it happens to us in the coming years.

FrogHorn07 said...

There are a lot of misconceptions flying around here regarding BCS at large and automatic bids. If I may try to clear things up:

1) The six AQ conference winners go to BCS games no matter what.

2) Each conference is allowed a maximum two teams (Arkansas, and SC are out no matter what at this point).

3) At-large teams (teams that did not win their conference) have to be in the top 14.

4) If an AQ conference champion is not in the top-16 then the highest ranked non-AQ conference winner in the top 16 becomes an Automatic qualifier.