Monday, November 22, 2010

The New Paranoia: No BCS Bowl at all?

This post is painful for me to write because, as regular readers know, I generally try to be optimistic about things. But as the tide has turned on the nation's opinion of the Frogs, the seed of doubt has been planted: what if TCU is completely left out of the BCS?

Hopefully in a few weeks we can look back at this post and laugh at how silly I was being. After all, the Frogs do still have a legitimate shot at playing in the Championship game. But if Boise State ends up passing TCU, which is 'inevitable' if you listen to the 'experts', they won't be guaranteed anything...EVEN IF Auburn or Oregon lose and TCU ends up at #3.

To quickly bring those of you not well-versed in BCS rules up to speed on why TCU wouldn't be guaranteed a BCS spot, even at #3...the BCS is required to take the highest-ranked non-BCS team, provided they are in the Top 12. But JUST the top-ranked team...the Top 12 rule doesn't mean a thing if you're the second highest-ranked non-BCS team. And for those of you thinking that the Top 3 ranked teams are guaranteed a BCS spot...that rule only applies to teams from BCS conferences. To sum it up...only the team that ends up ranked higher between TCU and Boise State will be guaranteed a spot in a BCS bowl, and the other will be hoping to be picked as an at-large team.

So let's look at who will be automatically eligible for the BCS:

-SEC Champion (either Auburn or South Carolina)
-Big 12 Champion (OU, Oklahoma State or Nebraska)
-Big Ten Champion (Wisconsin, Ohio State or Michigan State)
-Pac 10 Champion (probably Oregon...possibly Stanford)
-ACC Champion (Virginia Tech, Florida State or NC State)
-Big East Champion (Pitt...or someone, who knows)
-Top-ranked non-BCS team (if we're to believe ESPN, it'll be Boise)

That would leave just three at-large spots. You have to believe that a second SEC team will be picked, with the schools mentioned above as well as LSU and Alabama as strong candidates. You also have to assume that a second Big Ten team will be selected, as all three of the schools listed above are 10-1.

After that, you're left with just one remaining spot. Sure, if TCU does indeed beat New Mexico and finish the regular season 12-0 and ranked #3 or #4 in the BCS, you have to think that they'd be the top choice here. But what about Stanford? The Cardinal are 10-1 right now, and would one of the BCS bowls rather have an 11-1 Pac 10 team than a 12-0 Mountain West team? It sure doesn't sound like something completely out of the realm of possibility. And what about a 2- or 3-loss team from the Big 12? Would the Sugar or Orange Bowls want Oklahoma, Oklahoma State or Nebraska above an undefeated TCU?

If I had to bet, I'd put my money on the Frogs getting a BCS bid. After all, the BCS has to be wary of the extreme criticism that it receives year after year. And even if you feel like the media doesn't come to the defense of TCU enough, trust me, they'd raise a stink over the Frogs being relegated to the Las Vegas Bowl as the #3 or #4-ranked team in the nation. So I think that, out of self-preservation, the BCS will find a spot for TCU. But I just want to, even as someone who is usually fairly optimistic, prepare you all for the worst-case scenario.


LA Frog said...

Barbie even said it to GP on College GameDay on Saturday that "if a 12-0 TCU does not make a BCS bowl, then it will be a travesty" I think the media will revolt if undefeated TCU and Boise State each don't make a BCS game. Does a media revolt matter?

LA Frog said...

The real revolt happens when a one loss Stanford (that 1 loss to #1 Oregon) goes to the Alamo Bowl. Utah AG's don't frighten the BCS, but PAC-10/12 lawyers, politicos, etc do.

So, if Auburn and Oregon win out, then they meet in the NC, then Boise/TCU takes the PAC-10 spot in the Rose Bowl.

Staford will not get a BCS bid because they provide less revenue generation than TCU (Stanford does not travel well)

Hornedfrog1982 said...

Last year I was the happiest man alive waiting for the BCS announcement to see where the Frogs were going to play.

Then the BCS cartel screws us and makes us play Boise.

So this year we are the same ranking but may be behind Boise and looking at how they play is OK in my book.

So I say to myself, cool. We will not have to play Boise again this year. Let both schools wail on the big boys but then I remember last year and the huge disappointment and I can not help but think that the BCS will do it to us again and we will be in Las Vegas.

Let's hope I am wrong.

FYI Orange Bowl. Your TV ratings will be 30 to 50% higher then the last few years if you take the Frogs.

Rotten Arsenal said...

I just wonder how much screaming will happen if the #3 or 4 team in the country (by the BCS' own ranking system) is left out of a BCS bowl game because a possibly unranked 3 or 4 loss BigEast team gets an auto bid

Will said...

I think that ESPN is trying to salvage its credibility. It wants Boise in the MNC, but leaving TCU out of the BCS mix altogether is a bridge too far, even for them. Frankly, it seemed like all that Patterson was truly ARGUING for was BCS inclusion. The rest was just a reminder that we're good and deserve consideration. He's still a good trooper when it comes to supporting the bowl system.

HFrog77 said...

My $0.02 is that we'd better be rooting hard for LSU and every other 1-loss team this weekend and in the conference championship games. If Boise wins out, the BCS would find it politically undesireable to take a 2-loss team over TCU.

A 1-loss Stanford team whose only loss was to #1 Oregon? They might risk that.

A 1-loss LSU team whose only loss was to Auburn? They might risk that too.

Slay Purple said...

LSU can't play for the SEC championship so there is NO WAY (I am saying it) that they could go to the NC without winning their own Conference. Additionally, LSU would have one less game to their credit so a 1-loss Auburn>LSU.

Why does New Mexico even exist?

buffalo said...

fuck that noise!