By request from one WWHD, and a little help from my main man Kenny Rogers, I’m going to add a twist to the guide this week – point spreads and ill advised gambling suggestions! A little background – I don’t bet on sports too much. I play in 2 college football pick em leagues, both of which I am getting my cellar dweller on in, and only bet on individual games when I happen to be in Vegas. However, my previously mentioned 100-1 odd bet with WWHD on TCU winning the National Championship is looking pretty good with BYU knocking off OU and giving our SOS a serious boost, no? Anyway, I don’t suggest you take my picks, but it’s just something fun to do for the time being until someone with some know how makes their own betting post each week. As a disclaimer, I will use the spreads from the spitblood pool when available and if not I am going to use the ones from my yahoo league.
Once again this week we get an early Thursday night ACC treat with big implications on our Top 25 standing as Georgia Tech travels to Miami to take on the 7th Floor crew. There are also some fantastic non conference matchups to keep an eye on, including Utah/Oregon and Cincinnati/Oregon State and a big mid afternoon non conference matchup between Nebraska and Virginia Tech. This without even mentioning the biggest game of the afternoon when the Bobcats of Texas State Southwest Herpes Syphillis University travel to Fort Worth to take on the Mighty Horned Frogs. These guys are the ultimate UT T shirt fans as they’re only in San Marcos because they couldn’t get into UT, so we should hate them that much more. Anyway, onward we go...
Games to Watch that REALLY Matter. (AP/Coaches Ranking. Home team spread listed)
#14/13 Georgia Tech at #20/22 Miami (FL) (-4.5). So I believe we have mentioned last Thursday’s barn burner between Clemson and Georgia Tech quite a few times on this site, so I won’t get into it too much. After Georgia Tech nearly choked away a 24 point first half lead, the Tigers stormed back to take the league only to fall by the ACC-esque margin of 3 points. Miami has had 10 full days to prepare for the Georgia Tech wish bone attack while the Jackets are playing their second Thursday nighter in a row. Based on that alone, especially given what we know about Thursday night games, you have to want to take the Hurricanes. HOWEVER, you have to take into account that Tech actually had a full week to prepare for this game and is playing a team who came within a last second review of losing to Florida State – the same Florida State who came within minutes of losing to Jacksonville State of the mighty Ohio Valley Conference at home. Honestly, I think last week was a bit of a fluke for Georgia Tech as they simply fell asleep on Clemson. Not that the Tigers are a bad team, but they beat the pants off of them in the first half. However, I think a Hurricanes would still keep the Frogs higher in the rankings and would certainly drop Georgia Tech into the high teens/low 20s. Georgia Tech has won the previous four meetings in this matchup and Miami has been pretty anemic against their running attack. A Hurricanes win helps us more, but I’m going with the Yellowjackets.
Gambler says – Remember that magic number of 3 I mentioned earlier? That alone should make you take the points in this one – that and the fact that the Miami D gave up 34 points to a Florida State team who only put up 19 on Jacksonville State a week later.
#19/18 Nebraska at #13/14 Virginia Tech (-4.5). In the back end of a home/home series that was won by the Hokies 35-30 in Lincoln last season, the Corn Huskers travel to Blacksburg in their second season under Bo Pelini with revenge on their minds. After a poor showing against Alabama opening weekend, Virginia Tech looked downright nasty against Marshall last week, running up 605 yards and 6 TDs to Marshall’s 252 and 1. Nebraska has played a couple of cream puffs to start the season in Florida Atlantic and Arkansas State, manhandling both. As mentioned before, Nebraska surely remembers the game last year as the Hokies controlled most of the game and played with the lead the entire time. Don’t think they’ve forgotten. In reality, this game probably has no bearing on us simply because the two teams would probably swap places in the rankings with a Nebraska loss, and VT would remain up with a win. However, just to play it safe, we know a VT loss would move us up but we don’t know that Nebraska would jump us, although, like I said, it’s likely. Going into Blacksburg and getting a win in a non conference game is no easy task as they’ve won the last 31. Given Nebraska’s easy schedule to this point, and the Hokies having established a two headed freshman attack at running back, not to mention a hostile home environment, I’ll take the Hokies.
Gambler says-Regardless of my big talk of the Hokies, I think this one stays close. Nebraska seems to have a few offensive weapons, notably newly minted QB Zac Lee. With Pelini and Beamer under the headsets, I expect the defenses to play a major role in the outcome of this game and it could come down to the wire. I think the Hokies win, but it’s close, although touchdown close, not 4.5 points close. Let’s go Hokies.
#17/21 Cincinnati at Oregon State (-1.5). Pretty strange seeing a game between these two teams pop up on our radar, let alone having it be pretty important to our ranking, but here we are. Cincinnati, thought to be in a rebuilding year, has come out and just gotten FILTHY on the competition, putting up 70 on Missouri State and humiliating the Guidos from Rutgers, the preseason Big Least favorite, 47-15. Even Tony Soprano couldn’t stick around for that one. Perhaps this Big East is better than we thought? Nah, definitely not, but Cincinnati looks to have plenty of fire power on offense, and not bad defense to boot. Oregon State handily beat Portland State in their opening game, but had to squeak by UNLV last weekend on a late field goal. Despite this, they still have the Texas high school RB that got away in Jacquizz Rogers and a defense that has only allowed 28 points this season. Another factor to consider – the Beavers have won their last 26 non conference home games. All records have to end though, and I think this is the end of the road for this particular one. I don’t care how good their defense is, OSU won’t stop Cincinnati all night, and Cincy’s defense is equally as good. I’m going Bearcats even though it could cause us to fall in the rankings. Hopefully the pollsters will realize they’re still in the Big East when it comes time to cast their votes.
Gambler says - Our pool got this game at -1.5 to Oregon State but the line has since moved to even odds. If we’re going straight up, I definitely like Cincinnati. If we’re not, I still like the Nick Lachey’s.
#18/16 Utah at Oregon (-4). Oooh love this matchup, and it’s not even the biggest one of the week in the MWC! So much for our weak schedules, eh? This game is big for many reasons outside of conference clout as Utah still holds the record for consecutive wins at 16, although they BARELY got the win last week against San Jose State. Personally I want the Utes to continue to roll so we can break their streak at Amon G yet again, but one game at a time. After the… let’s put this delicately… “turmoil filled” start to the season, Oregon almost slipped last week against Purdue, needing a failed 2-pt try to sneak away with a victory. This is definitely the hardest game of the week to call in my mind as both teams have a lot of question marks. Can they play defense? Is Terrence Cain the right answer at QB for Utah? Heck, what’s the deal with Jeremiah Masoli? I don’t know, I’m going with the stat geeks on this one: Oregon is 28/30 in non conference games since 1995, and are 5-0 against ranked teams. Frankly, Utah is HIGHLY overrated at 18/16 and a win for them keeps them hot on our tails in the rankings and we aren’t doing ourselves any favors this week with our scheduling. The best case scenario is for Utah to keep rolling so we can knock them off in November and boost our strength, but I think the Ducks win in a low scoring affair. Two records drop in Oregon!
Gambler says - Since I have no faith in my convictions, I’ll take Utah and the points here. Neither one of these teams are worth watching.
Games to Watch that Kind of Matter.
#10/10 Boise State at Fresno State (+7.5). Ooooh a Thursday treat AND a Friday treat back to back? Man how I missed college football! This is certainly a tricky one to call. Obviously we want at least one of the teams on the Boise slate to beat them this year, and probably two just to help our case even more. One thing that’s always said about Pat Hill’s Fresno State teams is that they aren’t afraid to play anyone, anytime, anywhere which is reason enough to like this program over the Broncos. However, as the Bulldogs haven’t beaten a ranked opponent in 5 years, perhaps the move isn’t so wise after all. Regardless, Fresno State went into Madison, Wisconsin last weekend and beat the Badgers up and down the field for most of the game and only lost in overtime on an intercepted pass in the end zone. Tough way to go, but that seems to be how his teams have lost a lot of these games. In last year’s meeting between the conference rivals, Boise was on a mission and put up 61 to Fresno’s 10. While the Broncos offense looked sloppy in week one, they had no problems dismantling Miami of Ohio last week, although it should be noted that they’ve replaced SMU as the worst team in college football for the 2009 season. The Bulldogs are going to have revenge on their minds after last year, but I don’t see how you can’t like the Broncos in this one. Also to consider: The Broncos have beaten Fresno in eight of their past nine meetings. As usual, a Bronco loss is good for us, but probably isn’t going to happen.
Gambler says - At first glance, this spread seems awfully close considering Boise’s offense, but I suppose the home crowd must be more of a factor than you’d think. Regardless, Boise hasn’t lost a conference game since 2007 and in that time have mostly blown out their inferior competition. Not that this one is going to be a blowout, but I’d feel comfortable saying the Broncos will win by more than one TD.
#11/11 Ohio State (-20.5) vs. Toledo. After that epic game last week against USC, Ohio State finds itself in a definite comedown game against a Toledo team that absolutely donkey punched Colorado last weekend, although based on the early returns Colorado likely wouldn’t finish in the top half of the MAC this season. Despite the score last week, Jim Tressel had his pants pulled down by Pete Carroll from a coaching perspective and many of the pundits out there are wondering if phenom QB Terrell “We all murder people” Pryor made the correct decision in choosing the Buckeyes. Heck, there is even talk amongst the fanbase of wanting to remove Tressel from his play calling duties, with some even calling for the coach's head. Apparently beating your rival year after year, consistently winning your conference and playing in BCS games isn’t worth much to some folks, but obviously around here we’d make the guy chancellor with that kind of track record. Regardless, I don’t think Ohio State will have too much of a problem with the Rockets. I mean, they’re going to figure out how to effectively utilize Terrell Pryor at some point, right? RIGHT?
Gambler says- So far this season, Toledo has put up 31 points in a loss to Purdue and 54 points in a win against Colorado, while giving up 52 and 38 points, respectively. So this is definitely your classic, Leachesque all O no D situation. Unfortunately for Toledo, there is a significant drop off in defensive talent between Purdue/Colorado and Ohio State, who may have gotten slapped around by Navy, but put the hammer down on USC last weekend. Against such a soft defense, and with all the rumblings regarding conservative “Tressel Ball,” I think this week is when the Buckeyes let Terrell Pryor loose and he runs all over a team. 20.5 is a huge spread, but I’m taking the Buckeyes.
#12/12 Oklahoma (-15.5) vs. Tulsa. After a cakewalk game against Idaho State to get the Sooners back on their feet, in walks in state rival Tulsa for a very curious intersectional matchup. Despite the proximity, the two teams have only played sporadically in recent years, the last time being a 62-21 victory by the Sooners in 2007. As you can imagine, most of the games in this series have gone like that despite Tulsa’s much hyped high flying offense. Then again, Oklahoma has typically had a Hesiman hopeful, non-porn stache under center, so if the tables are to be turned, this is the year. As Lee Corso would say, though, “Not so fast my friend! EH EH, not gonna happen!.” Even though Tulsa is in the top 10 in points scored this year, those two games have been against a poor Tulane team and an abysmal New Mexico, so needless to say they haven’t faced a defense quite like that of Oklahoma. Even without Sam Bradford under center, I think the offense will make enough plays and the defense will put it away. Obviously this would be SUCH a magnificent upset, but OU is on high alert after the BYU game and should dispatch the Hurricanes rather swiftly.
Gambler says-Just to play devils advocate here – what if Landry Jones comes out, gets knocked around a bit, and loses his composure? What if Tulsa, who has been the nation's leading offense the past 2 seasons, puts a few quick scores on the board and OU has to play catchup? Just ask Oklahoma State what it’s like going into a game against a high scoring C-USA opponent with a 15.5 point spread. I’m calling it – Tulsa loses but covers and C-USA starts to gain back some of the respect it lost in the mass exodus of 2004. Haha, who am I kidding, SMU is still there to bring that conference down, but seriously, take the points.
Games that Matter because they fall into our Target Range but an Upset ain’t Happenin’
#16/17 Oklahoma State (-32.5) vs. Rice. After last week’s not-so-shocking loss to Houston, Oklahoma State welcome in Houston’s cross town, nerdier CUSA pals Rice. Rice hasn’t beaten a Big 12 team since 1993. Rice has given up 1,076 yards of offense in two games. Rice just lost the most prolific passing/receiving connection in NCAA history. Rice lost 44-24 to UAB and 55-10 to Tech. They surrendered 7 passing TDs to Tech’s Taylor Potts, who the week before threw 3 INTs and only 2 TDs against North Dakota. UAB got KTFO by SMU at home last weekend. Oklahoma State is playing without stud RB Kendall Hunter but are you kidding me? After dropping 10+ spots in the rankings, the T. Boone’s are going to have an insane chip on their shoulder to try and show they still belong in the Big 12/National title race… even though they probably don’t. Regardless, Cowboys roll.
Gambler says-Perhaps 32.5 points is a big spread to cover for a team who has scored 24 and 35 points in their opening two games. Perhaps, though, Rice will give up at least 5 TDs to Dez Bryant alone, not to mention the other receivers, tight ends, running backs, ball boys, etc. This one will be SO fugly. If the Pokes are half the team they think they are, they’ll have more murder in their hearts this week than the man himself, Dick Bumpas. 32.5 should be easy against that Rice defense.
Other games of Interest that don’t fall within the range but are worth watching.
#7/9 BYU (-7.5) vs Florida State. Not quite in the same vein as the Catholics vs. Criminals Notre Dame – Miami matchup, but you get the idea. Mormons vs. Morons? Or would it be Morons vs. Morons? Anyway, BYU jumps right back into this whole non conference thing with a tough home opener against Bobby Bowden’s Seminoles. Big for the mtn west if the Cougars prevail, although obviously nothing can top their opener. Win this one and we could be headed for an undefeated showdown on the 24th in Provo. Gameday, anyone? As this is the first home game for BYU, a team who always draws a phenomenal crowd no matter the situation, I can’t even imagine how crazy their magic underpants wearin’ fans will be going for this one. Max Hall = good. FSU secondary = bad. I don’t see there being too many problems for the Cougars.
Gambler says -Is betting on BYU games even allowed? 7.5 points though? Joke. Take BYU all the way to the bank… or Cumorah’s Cave, whichever you prefer.
#2/2 Texas (-16.5) vs. Texas Tech. Need I even build up this game? Love the move to the third weekend, by the way. Great job, ESPN. UT had a shaky performance last week against Wyoming, but you have to imagine they may have been thinking ahead to this particular match up, don’t you? Tech typically struggles in Austin, and hasn’t beaten the Horns there since 1997 and don’t expect the nearly 100,000 orange clad fans to give them a pass this year.
Gambler says-Mack Brown teams may have issues with covering the spread, but if they can’t get up for this one, then they have no business playing college football. UT by 3 TDs at least.
#1/1 Florida (29.5) vs. Tennessee. Oh. Oh my goodness gracious. Like, I really hate SMU. Not really because anyone from there has done anything personally to me- far from it actually as I like a lot of the kids I know from there-but they’re a laughing stock and their fans embody all of the qualities that I hate about America and Dallas in particular. Having them as our rival and getting to beat them year in year out is just icing on the cake. However, I can’t even imagine the vitriol Florida fans currently have towards Lane Kiffin and Tennessee. This was already a pretty solid rivalry, having only become lop sided in recent years. I think it’s safe to say that Kiffin has put a little fire back in this thing.
Gambler says-Is there a mercy rule in college football? You could tease this spread to 50 in favor of Tennessee and I’d still take Florida. Meyer called timeouts in the final minutes last year against Georgia when the game was well in hand so he could score. He kicked a field goal in the closing minutes against Miami when the Gators were up by 20+ points. What does he have in store for Kiffin? Can Roman Coliseum rules be imposed in the Swamp? I hope Vols QB Jonathan Crompton brought extra diapers for this one. This is your lock of the week.
So, from the looks of things, some great games this weekend, with only one being a presumed blowout. Unfortunately, playing TX State doesn’t do much for us as far as a rankings increase is concerned, and it shouldn’t, so we’ll need some help to move anywhere. From the looks of things, our best chances are for Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech and Boise to lose, with Ohio State sleeping on Toledo being an awesome one to hope for. The chances of all of this happening are slim, but it’s not like anyone can predict this stuff anyway. Most importantly, we have a home game this week. See you all there. I’m spent. No promises on a game preview.
Today I was fortunate to sit down with GP for a very private lunch where we discussed the goings on of the Frog football program. And by very private, I mean with 300 other people while sitting at the back table barely able to so Gary's head. But it was totally worth it and here is the recap.
