
While the Frogs are one of just two teams that won't open the season this weekend, their all-important strength of schedule will begin to take shape as the rest of the nation embarks on the 2009 campaign. CBS Sports currently ranks the Frogs' schedule as the
23rd-hardest in the nation. Before each weekend, I'll take a look at the games that will have the biggest impact on strengthening the Frogs' resume in the eyes of the computers. Then I'll go back and discuss what went right and what went wrong after the weekend.
This weekend's game of the week:
BYU vs. Oklahoma (at Jerry World, 6:00pm Saturday, ESPN)
-Both of these teams bring back their ultra-productive quarterbacks from last year, but Sam Bradford and Max Hall will both be working behind almost entirely-new offensive lines. A lot will be riding on how ready the new guys upfront for both teams are, but in the end I think OU's defense is going to be the difference. As much as I would love to see BYU pull off the upset (and it would be quite the upset, seeing as how they're 22.5-point underdogs), I think the key is for the Cougars to at least keep this one close. If they can do that, BYU (and the MWC in general) will gain some respect once the Sooners start demolishing Big 12 teams. So perhaps this game means more for the league in the eyes of the human voters than to the Frogs' strength of schedule.
Other games to keep an eye on:
Colorado State at Colorado (6:00pm Sunday, FSN)
-This game might be the best chance for an upset to enhance both the image of the conference as well as the Frogs' SOS. The Buffaloes are 10.5-point favorites, but this is a rivalry game and the clashes between these two have always been hard-fought, close games. Colorado has also lost 2 of their last 3 home openers. The big key to CSU building on the momentum they started in Steve Fairchild's first year in '08 is replacing the production lost due to the graduation of Gartrell Johnson, who rushed for nearly 1,500 yards last year including 285 in the bowl win over Fresno State.
San Diego State at UCLA (6:30pm Saturday)
-Not a lot went right for either of these teams last year, with the Aztecs finishing 2-10 and the Bruins 4-8. UCLA is picked to be one of the better teams in the Pac 10 this year, though, which is either due to no one in that conference being all that good, or that Rick Neuheisel is probably cheating. The Aztecs have never beaten UCLA, but maybe with 7 returning starters on defense and new coach Brady Hoke, who worked wonders at Ball State, this will be the year.
New Mexico at Texas A&M (6:00pm Saturday)
-Goodness gracious both of these teams were anemic last year, when Aggy won a really sloppy game in Albuquerque. They are a two-touchdown favorite since the game is being played in College Station, but I'm not sure I'm buying the home-field advantage at Kyle Field since they did lose their home-opener to Arkansas State last year. Apparently the Lobos are going to throw the ball a lot more under new coach Mike Locksley, so if they get an improved version of returning starting QB Donovan Porterie (who was terrible last year), this could be another chance for an upset.
Games that ought to go our way:
Utah vs. Utah State (8:00pm Thursday, The Mtn)
-The Utes have won 11 straight against USU, 11 straight at home and 14 straight overall. I highly doubt any of those streaks get broken Thursday. What makes this game worth watching is the Utes' battle to replace Brian Johnson at QB- will it be true freshman Jordan Wynn or JUCO transfer (and Houston-area native) Terrance Cain?
UNLV vs. Sacramento State (9:00pm Saturday)
-If Mike Sanford and UNLV are going to build on the momentum of beating Arizona State on the road last year and nearly making a bowl game, they need to win by a large margin over the 1-AA Hornets.
Air Force vs. Nicholls State (1:00pm Saturday)
-As a team that's coming off two straight bowl seasons, the Falcons ought to destroy Nicholls State, a 1-AA team that was 3-6 a year ago and reportedly is full of gingers.
Wyoming vs. Weber State (2:00pm Saturday)
-Yes, Appalachian State showed us that a top 1-AA team (Weber State was 10-4 a year ago and reached the I-AA quarterfinals) aren't quite the cupcakes you might think. And yes, this is the same Weber State that pulled off the memorable upset of North Carolina in the '99 NCAA Tournament behind Harold "The Show" Arceneaux. But new Wyoming coach Dave Christensen (the architect of Missouri's offense for the past few years) and his system being led by senior QB Karsten Sween are just going to be too much for the Grills.
Clemson vs. Middle Tennessee State (5:00pm Saturday)
-If the Tigers can't handle MTSU with ease, it makes the Frogs' trip to Clemson a lot less scary. But we want Clemson to be as highly-ranked as possible to make what we hope will be a TCU victory as impressive as it can be. I think they run away with this one.
Virginia vs. William and Mary (5:00pm Saturday, ESPN 360)
-I always thought it was funny to see William & Mary on a team's schedule, just because it gave me the mental image of my parents lining up against a real-live college football team. While I think the Cavs will take this one, it will probably be a little harder than defeating Mr. and Mrs. Lanley. Might be worth watching (that is, if you can figure out how to get 360 working on your computer...) just to see what UVA's got. Rumor is their QB is also their punt returner.
SMU vs. Stephen F. Austin (7:00pm Saturday)
-June Jones' first (and only) win at SMU came against a I-AA team, and after seeing SFA last year I have no problem predicting that his 2nd will come this weekend. Apparently SMU has sold this game out through some sort of gimmick promotion and is now looking to "white out" the stadium. We'll see how many people actually end up showing up.
Texas State vs. Angelo State (6:00pm Saturday)
-I'm not even sure if our I-AA opponents even officially factor in to our strength of schedule in the eyes of the computer, but always better to face a winning team rather than a losing one, right? The Division-II Rams ought to be an easy W for the Bobcats. I'm still kinda bitter that Texas State couldn't move this game so that they could come play in Fort Worth this weekend.