Monday, May 4, 2009

Can the Frogs make it 4 in a row?

Bryan Holaday's walk-off homer to beat BYU with two outs in the bottom of the 10th on Friday night completed another "sweep" for the Frogs against a conference foe at home. But that wasn't assured of until Saturday afternoon, when thunderstorms rolled through the Metroplex, cancelling Saturday's series finale. That was the fourth conference game and seventh overall game cancelled this year due to weather.

Because Mother Nature has affected the schedules of so many teams in the conference this year to varying degrees, the MWC title will be determined on percentage points. With a 10-4 conference record (and .714 winning percentage), the Frogs currently find themselves on top of the MWC standings as they try to win their 4th consecutive regular season title.

The teams with the best chance to catch TCU are San Diego State and New Mexico. The Aztecs are currently 10-8 (.556) with six very winnable games left against Air Force and at Utah. If they were to win all six (and they should), they'd push their record to 16-8 (.667). New Mexico sits in second place right now at 12-8 (.614). With just three games remaining, they'll have less of a chance to make up ground, but those three are at Air Force, so the Lobos ought to win out, too. That would put them at 15-8 (.652).

The Frogs' six remaining conference games are a home series against Utah this weekend and then next weekend in Las Vegas against UNLV. To clinch the conference title, they would need to win four of those six to give them a .700 winning percentage. If they were to slip up and go 3-3 down the stretch, though, they would risk falling behind both San Diego St. and New Mexico and losing the first-round bye in the conference tournament.

Of course, all of this assumes that weather won't force any more games to be cancelled, so I may have just wasted your & my time by typing this all out. Either way- rain or shine, regular season title or not- the Frogs will be playing for their 4th straight conference tournament title when the MWC Tournament comes back to Lupton Stadium on May 19-23.

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