You could bet on the Florida Gators (2/1 odds) to win the BCS title. But that would be too easy. The real money is on a team like Texas Christian (60/1 odds).
If you think my recommendation a few weeks ago of putting a few dollars down on Notre Dame at 25/1 on Bodog's odds to win the BCS National Championship this season was hogwash, then you'll really laugh at this long shot value bet recommendation: Texas Christian.
But hear me out.
How overlooked are the Horned Frogs? Bodog doesn't even give them odds to win it all, so they are part of the field at 60/1. This is despite the fact that TCU finished last season 11-2 (ranked seventh in the final polls) and knocked off unbeaten Boise State in the Poinsettia Bowl - that was the Frogs' fourth bowl win in a row, and only six other teams have streaks that long.
Coach Gary Patterson has 10 starters coming back, six on offense on four on defense. It was defense that carried this team in 2008, as it ranked first in total defense, second to USC in scoring defense, second in sacks and allowed a ridiculous 612 yards rushing all season. Yes, that unit lost seven starters from last season, but TCU has led the Mountain West in total defense every year but one since moving to the conference. So clearly Patterson, a former defensive coordinator, knows what he’s doing.
In addition, one of the four defenders returning in 2009 is the best one: All-American defensive end Jerry Hughes, who led the nation with 15 sacks and six forced fumbles last year.
The offense will be led by Andy Dalton, who emerged as a top-flight quarterback in the second half of last season after returning from an injury. In TCU’s first five games, Dalton had no touchdown passes and averaged 163.6 yards per game. In the Frogs' final six he averaged 237.3 yards in the air and had 11 TDs. And in TCU's final two home games, Dalton was 37-of-49 for 655 yards with six touchdowns and no interceptions (of course that was vs. Air Force and Wyoming). Dalton's leading receiver in 2008, Jimmy Young, also is back.
Texas Christian's schedule sets up for an unbeaten run. Its toughest tests should come Sept. 26 at Clemson and Oct. 24 at BYU. But the Frogs are 26-13 on the road since 2003, which is the seventh-best winning percentage in the country. Utah is always a threat in the MWC, but the Frogs get them in Fort Worth this season and TCU is 31-4 at home since 2003, the sixth-best winning percentage in the country since '03.
So would a 12-0 TCU even get a berth in the BCS National Championship game? I might argue yes. After all, Utah earned the Mountain West some major respect with its rout of Alabama in last year's Sugar Bowl. And if you look at each BCS conference, there is no lock unbeaten in any of those. All the Frogs have to do is steal one spot, and should they get the chance they are 11-3 in their past 14 games against BCS teams.
I’m not saying put your life savings down at 60/1, but TCU is definitely worth a look.
Here are the stat's for the nations top 10 Team Total Defense:
Top 10 Team Total Defense for 2000-2008
| | Team | Games | Yardage | Avg. ypg |
| 1 | Virginia Tech | 116 | 33270 | 286.8103 |
| 2 | LSU | 115 | 33852 | 294.3652 |
| 3 | | 110 | 32478 | 295.2545 |
| 4 | TCU | 109 | 32395 | 297.2018 |
| 5 | | 112 | 33401 | 298.2232 |
| 6 | | 119 | 35712 | 300.1008 |
| 7 | | 112 | 33764 | 301.4643 |
| 8 | | 114 | 34408 | 301.8246 |
| 9 | | 114 | 34707 | 304.4474 |
| 10 | | 112 | 34293 | 306.1875 |
Top 10 Team Total Defense from 2005-2008
(Since TCU has joined the MWC)
| | Team | Games | Yards | Avg. ypg |
| 1 | Virginia Tech | 54 | 14141 | 261.8704 |
| 2 | | 51 | 13870 | 271.9608 |
| 3 | TCU | 51 | 14041 | 275.3137 |
| 4 | LSU | 53 | 14900 | 281.1321 |
| 5 | | 52 | 15111 | 290.5962 |
| 6 | Penn St. | 51 | 15002 | 294.1569 |
| 7 | | 50 | 14841 | 296.82 |
| 8 | | 53 | 15872 | 299.4717 |
| 9 | Clemson | 51 | 15336 | 300.7059 |
| 10 | | 52 | 15690 | 301.7308 |
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2 comments:
TCU, or any other undefeated MWC team, would need help to get into the #2 BCS spot by the season finish.
The Frogs have some in the wings, though: Clemson appears ready to exceed expectations this year-- in stark contrast to last year. So does SMU.
A strong OOC schedule would help the Frogs almost as much as a strong conference schedule-- something like last year's MWC effort. That means BYU can lose to OU (but not in a rout), but it really needs to beat Florida State in Provo. Ditto Utah over Oregon (in Oregon) and Louisville (SLC). UNLV needs to beat Hawaii at least, but would really do TCU a favor by shocking Oregon State. Could it happen? No, but certainly possible. CSU over Colorado would be great, but is most unlikely.
SDSU over UCLA and New Mexico over A&M would be bonus points for the MWC, but don't bet the farm on 'em.
This child who wrote the article should have looked at his own website's odds for the field to win it all a little more closely.
Wisconsin 60/1
Field 25/1
And if there is anyone in their right mind that thinks that Notre Dame has a better chance than TCU to win the National Championship then I'm gonna black out. Thats ridiculous.
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