Statement Game

Saturday is the last time we'll ever get to see Henson harass the refs in the tunnel at Amon G

and could be the last time we see GP lead the troops into battle.

I definitely want to start this post on a positive note and give big, big props to Jerry Hughes for being a Nagurski Award Finalist. That is a huge deal and, despite the pre season talk from the coaching staff, certainly something few if any fans expected, although it should not have been surprising based on the pedigree of the two guys he learned from. He leads the country in sacks and tackles for a loss and has even thrown in a couple of INTs for good measure. I don't want to jinx him by mentioning him in the same breath as Tommy Blake, but, given the hype that surrounded Blake before his senior year, could Hughes' hype be even higher? Blake stuck around for his senior season despite the near certainty that he'd be a first round pick and, well, we all know that was the beginning of the end for 97. Hughes has already said he's sticking around for his senior season in order to lead the Frogs to another MWC Championship. I think he keeps his mind right and does it. Anyway, Congrats to Jerry and we're all extremely excited to have you back next season.

On a more somber note, this is it guys. I mean, obviously there's a bowl game, and there's a chance it could even be a bowl game at Amon G, but this is the last go around for this season. Maybe it's because I had to take a personal day for the SDSU game, or maybe it's because we didn't have a bye week until last weekend, but this season just seems like it flew by, right? I can remember being in Norman like it was last week, same goes for setting up shop on the SMU Blvd and gawking at the rich hoes. It's sad to think that I'm about to have to live in a world with only the lackluster Cowboys, Mavericks and Stars to pull me through. I don't think there's even a baseball team in Dallas anymore. I've already had my diatribe about Saturday's game, so I'll spare you, but it's been a hell of a ride and I'm sad to see it end.

As these things sometimes happen, occasionally a bye week will do just as much good for a team as a win. We stayed the same in the AP Poll (15), jumped a spot in the Coaches (17 from 18) and picked up a deuce in the BCS rankings (16 from 18). This was mostly due to the North Carolina loss in the increasingly jumbled ACC, as well as the computers finally realizing that Ball State is an overrated pile of crap and dumping them from 14 to 17 despite a win. Unfortunately, they won again last night against a decent Central Michigan team, so there's a chance we could flip flop with them again this week if everything remains the same. Fortunately for us and for college football fans, this is an AWESOME week for college football and an awesome week to have a day game to clear space for the nightcap. A handful of top 15 teams do battle against one another, and the teams ahead of us have loseable rivarly games to deal with as well. So let's get on with it.

AP - 15th. As things currently stand, we look to be pretty supplanted in the 15 spot in the AP poll and this looks to be our ceiling unless Michigan does the unthinkable and beats #10 Ohio State. Despite our lead over BYU in the AP, the biggest game to keep on our radar is (duh) #16 BYU at #8 Utah. Although BYU is currently behind us in the rankings, if they are to beat Utah, lots of bad things will happen that are far worse than losing a spot in the AP poll. First of all, the Las Vegas Bowl has already said they want to take BYU, regardless of the outcome of the Holy War, which is total bullshit if they lose. Mormons in Sin City? Now I've seen EVERYTHING! If Utah is to win, this leaves us in the homo Poinsettia Bowl (boo) likely against #9 Boise State (un-boo). This seems like it'd be a pretty cool situation for us and would likely be one of the more watched non New Years Day games. On the flip side, if BYU wins, that slots Boise State into the BCS more than likely, BYU into Vegas, Utah likely into Poinsettia territory and us to FW. Further, if we were to drop this game Saturday and all of this happens.. my word, I don't even know what would happen. New Mexico? There are going to be some at large bids open in various other bowls that we could sneak into, which lyle spelled out to me in an earlier email (my favorite possibility: Independence Bowl vs. Big 12). However, we aren't going to lose Saturday and neither is Utah so you can pretty much bank on the Poinsettia vs. Boise. Speaking of, Boise travels to Nevada on Saturday to take on the Wolfpack who, despite being 6-4, are really a pretty decent team and could put up a fight (so I hear). These are the only games this week whose outcome would directly affect us in the AP rankings

Coaches - 17th. Big differences here in comparison to the AP poll as the coaches slot Michigan State and BYU ahead of us. As mentioned, a BYU loss helps us in a lot of ways, but directly helps us here as we would easily move up a spot in the rankings. A big plus for us is #15 Michigan State traveling to the Happy Valley to play the #8 Nittany Lions. The Big Ten is overrated as usual and while Penn State would've been the latest in a line of overmatched Big Ten teams getting creamed in the National Championship, they were knocked by down to earth by Iowa a couple of weeks ago. A Penn State win here kicks Michigan State out of the Top 20 and out of our way.

BCS - 16th. This is the same as the Coaches poll, except apparently computers are smarter than humans and believe that an undefeated MAC team couldn't hope to hang with a 2 loss MWC team. Viva technology!

Games that REALLY Matter. (AP/Coaches/BCS Ranking)

#16/14/14 BYU at #8/7/7 Utah. We thought our game at Utah was going to be the biggest game in the history of the MWC, and it was until this week. Lots of reasons why this is such a huge game. As mentioned previously, the fate of our bowl location pretty much rests with this game, assuming we take care of a business against Air Force. Also, as crazy as it sounds, if BYU beats Utah, and Boise State falls to either Nevada or Fresno State, BYU will take the BCS at large bid over Ball State. I don't know about you guys, but this makes me pretty sick to my stomach. BYU and their deplorable fanbase are as undeserving of a BCS bid as Ball State. I'm not just saying this because we exposed them, but they haven't BEATEN anybody. They're a crap call in Washington away from having two losses and Washington not being the only winless team in the country. Think about that: your BCS at large team could be a team that should have lost to Washington, a team that hasn't won ONE game. They also were a last second INT away from losing to UNLV and had to squeak out a 3 pointer against CSU. In fact, the only good win they've had all year was this past week at Air Force. This is not a BCS worthy football team. Hell, they aren't a conference winning worthy team. Assuming they end up in the Fiesta against Tech/Texas/OU or the Sugar against Florida/Alabama... oh my god, that would make the UGA/Hawaii travesty of last year look like a game of Candy Land. This cannot happen. Also, this will not happen. Utah may not be the powerhouse they were in 2004 when they creamed Pittburgh in the Fiesta Bowl, but they're the best of the still eligible non BCS teams we've got. They've split the past 12 with BYU and the last couple have come down to last second heroics. Look/pray for the Utes to win at home.

#17/15/15 Michigan State at #7/8/8 Penn State. As mentioned, this game really only affects us positively if Michigan State loses. This would knock them out of the top 20 and would give us a bump in the Coaches and BCS polls while getting them off of our heels in the AP. If the Spartans win, we lose a spot in the AP because Penn State will not drop below us even with the two losses. The Lions are down, but if they lose this one, the Spartans will split the Big Ten title with #10/10/10 Ohio State, with the Buckeyes getting the BCS berth due to head to head play. There's a lot at stake for both teams because the difference between a win and a loss here could be the difference between the Rose Bowl and Alamo Bowl. Regardless, Penn State can win this thing outright should they pull this one out, so there's a little more riding on their shoulders. I think the Lions take the game, the Big Televen title and the Rose Bowl bid, thus sending out JoPa with a new knee... just so he can come back next year and do it all over again because the death avoidance battle between him and Bobby Bowden must go on until one dies. Seriously, it's like Harry Potter and Voldemort (sorry, guilty pleasure). Neither of these guys call plays and Paterno isn't even fit enough to stand on the sidelines, but they still continue to come out every year and do it just so they can see who has the biggest balls/most career wins. With Paterno likely on his last leg (see what I did there?), and Florida State turning a bit of a corner, I give the advantage to Bowden.

Games That Definitely Matter, but Probably Won't Have Upsets.

#9/9/9 Boise State at Nevada. Boise State is still on the outside looking in, but if Utah is to stumble, they're all over that BCS at large bid for the second time in three years. I really don't know a lot about Nevada other than they apparently have a great offense and/or defense. Someone is giving them an advantage somewhere. However, Boise hasn't had an opponent come within 13 points of beating them all year, so I don't look for this to change, especially with everything on the line. Broncos win by lots.

#10/10/10 Ohio State vs. Michigan. As I said earlier, this game has the most direct bearing on improving our AP ranking, and our other two rankings for that matter. Fortunately, history is on our side in this game as only one Michigan head coach has lost his debut against Ohio State. Unfortunately, Michigan is 3-8 and reeeeally really bad this year. Michigan has already lost the most games ever in their footballing history and broken the longest consecutive bowl streak in the country, so what's one more loss? This team is beyond playing for pride and hey! whatddya know, their starting QB, who also sucks, is out. Also, the near 20 point point spread for this game is the largest ever for this rivalry. A win here unjustly sends OSU to the Fiesta Bowl, if not the Rose depending on the outcome of the PSU game. WAY too much on the line for the Vest to lose. In true Big Ten fashion, Ohio State wins by televen points... and by televen I mean infinity.

Games that Don't Matter for the Frogs, but Feature Teams Ranked Above Us.

#3/3/4 Florida vs. The Citadel. (yawn). Those poor Citadel bastards not only have to go fight our wars for us after they graduate, but they have to line up and get their licks by SEC teams every year. Tebow will be sitting by the second quarter with a nice 5 TD lead. Halftime circumcisions for all the gentiles!!

#2/2/2 Texas Tech at #5/5/5 Oklahoma. Oh. Oh my goodness. Now that we're officially out of the BCS race and don't need Oklahoma to bolster our SOS, I can go with my heart and pull for the Leach's which will not only F Texas out of the Big 12 south title, but also steer that pirate ship to the white squall that is the Big 12 Championship and perhaps beyond that to do battle with scyalla (Alabama) or Charybdis (Florida) in the National Championship. (Editors Note: You will brush up on your Greek Mythology for all future SWW postings). Also, who the heck wants to pull for OU? Seriously. So, just for fun, let's look at this from a UT standpoint because they're in the mother of all brain fucks right now regarding this game.

First off, let's say as a UT fan you choose to pull for Tech. Wise choice... or not? By pulling for Tech, Texas all but guarantees themselves a spot in the Fiesta Bowl. OU will be out of the picture and Tech would likely beat Missouri in the Big 12 Championship and advance to the NC game. OU would get the Cotton and Missouri would get the Holiday. BUT WAIT! What if Tech gets past this game and then loses to Missouri? Would the Fiesta Bowl take a one loss Tech team that beat Texas or would they take a one loss UT team who lost to Tech but would sell more tickets? Would Tech really drop below Texas in the rankings if they lost to Mizzou? Gee Willikers!

On the flip side, let's say a UT fan chooses to pull for OU. First off, how the shit can you call yourself a UT fan while considering going for OU?? Come On!! I once worked with a guy who claimed to be a UT and an OU fan. We later sold this company and I no longer work with said co-worker. This is not a coincidence. Never trust someone like that to make you money. Anyway, let's look at this logically. Let's say OU wins. This would mean a 3 way tie in the Big 12 South and, after you explore all tie breaking options, the only solution is to declare the team with the highest BCS ranking winner. Right now in the BCS, Tech is 2nd, UT is 3rd and OU is 5th. What the hell happens if OU wins? Do you drop Tech below a Texas team that they beat? Do you jump OU over UT even though they lost to them? Wouldn't this be an absolute pandora's box of disaster? You'd be hearing the losing two coaches bitch until the end of time and the winning coach declaring the BCS a success. If you ask me, I think OU would end up taking the south, beating Missouri, and playing in the big one. I think it'd end up being Bama/OU/Tech/UT/Fla. Isn't that screwed up to let Texas drop because of a team they beat? Dropping Florida a spot in this instance is justified simply because they lose to Houston Nutt. So, in this case, Tech could lose and still beat out Texas in the BCS rankings. Now if this happens and then OU loses to Missouri, then the Fiesta Bowl voters STILL have to choose between Tech and UT.

Either way, Texas' hope for a BCS bid rely on outside factors, but I think they have the better shot if OU is to win. Look, if Tech gets to the Big 12 game, there's a chance Missouri beats them. It's in Missouri and Missouri has OWNED Tech the past few years. If OU gets to the Big 12 championship, they will ruin Missouri. Bad. This would put OU in the national championship and then have the other bowls pick between UT and Tech. Also, if OU goes to the Big 12 and loses, they will have two losses and be done in the talk, and, since Tech lost to them, this would give UT a slight edge. I know Tech won the head to head with UT, but BCS games aren't by RANK they're by "you get your FIRST PICK of the Big 12 teams, assuming they qualify." It'd be hard to shut out an undefeated Tech team whose only loss came in the championship game, but if they lose to OU and are pretty much in the same boat as Texas, the bowls would take Texas because of their fan base. Money talks, and UT has more of it than any other football program in the country. So, unless you have a particular interest in either Tech or OU, the outsider can choose this game on whether or not they want to screw Texas out of a BCS game, which is why I take the Raiders.

Ouch, my brain! Anyway, back to more relevant things, I titled this "statement game" because, as you can see, that's really what it is. We can't gain anything by winning, but we can lose a lot by losing. Everyone is going to think that we'll be down and out after the Utah game, but those people don't understand this team. These guys will come play their hearts out Saturday, the seniors will tie for the most wins ever, and GP will win his 100th game. There's a lot on our plate this weekend, Frogs fans. I look forward to seeing you all there. Go Frogs!